Iraq's faces the future without US troops

The last US combat brigade withdrew from Iraq last Thursday.

Combat operations will officially end next Tuesday and the role of the remaining 50,000 American troops will switch to providing help and advice.

The change opens the way to a full withdrawal by the end of 2011, supposedly ending the US's invasion of Iraq.

The withdrawal is welcome and ostensibly shows that Iraqi forces can deliver internal security and protect their own people.

Optimists believe that peace and stability will soon arrive in Iraq. Others are not so sure.

Many see the withdrawal as no more than a symbolic gesture and worry about the potential of renewed conflict.

Campaign

The withdrawal of the combat troops has allowed President Barack Obama to fulfil his campaign commitment to end a war that has so far cost almost US$750 billion and left 4,400 American soldiers dead. Iraqi casualties are disputed but number in thousands, including women and children.

The latest Reuters-Ipsos opinion poll puts Obama's approval rating at a new low of 45 per cent while his disapproval rating has risen to 52 per cent.

The beleaguered president needs a boost and with the November congressional elections is looming and he will want to remind America's voters that his administration has been successful in Iraq.

But are the Iraqi security forces up to the job?

Violence happens almost every day in the unhappy country. Iraqi government figures show that the number of civilian deaths doubled in July compared with the previous month.

A suicide bomber killed at least 59 people at a Baghdad army recruiting centre just two days before Thursday's withdrawal.

Disunity

It's now more than five months since Iraq's parliamentary election but the country is still without a government.

A coalition led by the secular Ayad Allawi won 91 seats against the 89 of Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki who has forged an alliance another Shiite bloc that should have provided a Shiite-dominated government for the next four years.

Just four votes short of a majority, they were expected to form government once the Kurds extracted promises of expanded autonomy, but the Shiite alliance has not been able to agree to a prime ministerial candidate because many of its members oppose allowing Maliki a second term.

The political impasse can only exacerbate the threat of renewed violence.

The insurgents are exploiting the sectarian-charged post-war atmosphere and the ongoing political infighting also encourages violence.

The conflict between the Sunni-supported cross-sectarian alliance and the country's major Shiite factions can be expected to deepen if a unity government is not formed soon.

A further aggravation is a debka.com report that Kurds in the north are preparing for a war.

The portal says the Kurds plans to occupy Kirkuk next month because they are "furious" over the Americans who are leaving the country without resolving ownership of the city and its oil fields.

Both Iraqi and US generals are not sure that the country's security forces will be able to protect the country after 2011.

Iraqi commander Lieutenant General Babaker Zerbari argues that American forces may be needed in Iraq for a further decade.

"At this point the withdrawal is going well, because they [the US troops] are still here. But the problem will start after 2011," AFP quotes Gen Zerbari as saying.

"If I were asked about the withdrawal, I would say to politicians: The US army must stay until the Iraqi army is fully ready in 2020."

US Defence Secretary Robert Gates has speculated with reporters about the possibility of US troops staying in Iraq if Baghdad asks.

"We're obviously open to that discussion," he said. "But that initiative will have to come from the Iraqis."

Iraqia List advisor Dr Hani Ashur told the Xinhua news agency: "The United States will keep 50,000 soldiers in Iraq until the end of 2011 to train Iraqis. This is a confession from the Americans that the Iraqi security forces are not totally ready to take over the security responsibility."

Iraq faces big challenges and only a united country will be able to fill the vacuum left after the US troops withdraw. — VNS