UN climate forum needs to get tougher

Outlook

(16-10-2009)

UN climate forum needs to get tougher

by Trinh Thanh Thuy

In less than two months world representatives will gather at the Bella Centre in Copenhagen, Denmark, for the United Nations Climate Change Conference.

The gathering will include the 15th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, or COP 15.

The intention of the conference will be to finalise an agreement in accordance with a schedule set in Bali, Indonesia, two years ago.

COP 15 will have to make tough decisions that will have a "profound impact on our world and on future generations," as former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan emphasizes.

The latest preparations for the conference have been geared toward a global agreement that would reduce carbon dioxide in the atmosphere by 25-40 per cent by 2020 and green house gases to half their 1990 levels by 2050.

The purpose of the reductions is to limit average global warming to no more than 2oC this century.

The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment says the earth’s average temperature rose 0.74 degrees between 1906 and 2005.

The warming is higher over land than sea and is highest in the northern hemisphere.

Heat waves and violent storms have also increased; seas have risen while the ice of both the Artic and Antarctica and atop mountains has started to melt.

The IPCC’s report concludes that the average temperature will continue to rise, but the extent and the duration of the rise, and the severity of its consequences, will depend on how quickly and how effectively emissions of greenhouse gases can be restricted and, in time, reduced.

Whether we can act in time to minimise the consequences of climate change may decide whether temperatures increase by two degrees or 20 this century; whether the seas rise by 12.7cm or 1.52m, and whether future Gross Domestic Product falls 5 per cent or 50 per cent.

Poorest hit hardest

And as Kofi Annan told a World Editors’ Forum co-sponsored by the Government of Denmark and Project Syndicate last weekend: "While climate change will affect us all, those in the greatest danger live in the poorest countries on small island nations, with the least resources to protect the people."

The European Commission estimates that developing countries will need an extra 100 billion euros a year to tackle climate change by 2020.

"We in the developed world have to be ready to put money on the table in Copenhagen, not just for adaptation to climate change, but to help finance the additional mitigation effort pursued by developing countries," European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso told the forum.

"We know the money can be found,"added Kofi Annan.

"We have seen wealthy countries find trillions of <$> over the last 18 months to rescue their banks."

Barroso also reminded the forum of economist Nicholas Stern’s warning that tackling climate change later rather than now would cost much more.

"But those of us with political responsibility have not yet, collectively, convinced people that we have the necessary political will to deliver solutions in line with economic growth and sustainable development," the European Commission President said.

Barroso also noted that tackling climate change "is not just a moral imperative, it’s also an immense economic opportunity".

Renewable energy alone is forecast to generate about 90 billion euros and 700,000 new jobs in Europe by 2020, while reducing its oil and gas bill by about 45 billion euros.

But this will only happen if the continent sticks to its commitment to double the share of clean energy to 20 per cent.

Speakers at the forum explained that just as with the global expansion of the internet, investment in green technologies during the next 20 years could also generate huge profits as an increasing number of customers adopt greener lifestyles.

But even if the industrialised world was to immediately reduce its emissions to zero while the developing countries "continued with business as usual", greenhouse gasses would still reach dangerous levels by 2050, Barroso warned.

"A truly global deal must commit everyone at some level," he said.

Global framework

Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen said a global framework to tackle climate change must have industrialised countries committed to substantial greenhouse gas reduction; accepting their responsibilities and helping the most vulnerable of the developing countries.

The prime minister said he expected the major developing countries to commit to unilateral mitigation and to halt their polluting activities with further efforts supported by international finance.

He also emphasised the need for private sector involvement through incentives for green investments and the establishment of a system of measurement, reporting and verification as well as the building of trust among nations.

However, skepticism still prevailed about the industrialised world’s determination to reduce its own emissions and to fund the effort of developing countries to go green.

Although some major players pledged to cut emissions and invest in clean energy at the United Nations-sponsored Climate Change Summit in New York last month, concrete plans or roadmaps have yet to materialise.

And while green businesses have had some successes - most notably in the host country of COP15 and financier George Soros has announced his decision to invest more than US$1 billion in clean technology – environment-damaging practices are still widespread.

Initial efforts to help developing countries mitigate the impact of climate change have been minimal, scattered, and passive although responding to the threat requires concerted long-term global action.

The launch of an effective offensive this December will depend on the developed countries tabling far more convincing plans and practical measures rather than ambiguous promises. — VNS